by Robert M. Traxler

After a lifetime of studying military science, I must say the Iranian attack on Israel ranks among the strangest things I ever studied.

During military science courses in high school, college and a master’s degree in military science and studies from the Command and General Staff College, I never studied a stranger attack. The Iranians are either inept or incompetent.  

The Iranians’ attack was telegraphed to Israel. The Iranians called up the Swiss and gave them the time, locations and weaponry to be used. The United States and our allies knew it was coming for days, as did the other nations in the Mideast; some of the drones had their landing lights on and many missiles were launched from known existing launch sites in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

The question must be — are the Iranians communications security and counter surveillance security so inept, or did they want to fail in their attack? Are the allied intelligence agencies that competent or are the Israelis anti-missile defenses that good? Perhaps both.

In excess of 300 drones, ICBMs, and battlefield low trajectory missiles were fired at Israel and very few landed on the intended target.  One theory is that the Iranians had to retaliate for the killing of a top Iranian commander in Syria by the Israelis. They needed to save face by mounting an attack, but also wanted to avoid all-out war by telegraphing their intentions.

A hard decision faces our President: will he push for a response or not? President Biden is reportedly telling President Netanyahu to “take the win” and let it go, a smart short term political move to placate the anti-Israel, pro-Hamas voters in the Democrat base, but a historically wrong military course of action for the Israel Defense Force (IDF).

A direct attack on Israel from Iran cannot be tolerated and must be countered; Iran must pay a price for an open military action against a sovereign nation. In my opinion, we need to use the attack on Israel as an invitation to allow the IDF to reduce the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program to rubble and reduce Iran’s capability to produce drones and missiles. It will not happen, as our government appears hell bent on seeing Iran get the bomb and arm the Russians with offensive weapons; a good question is why.

The IDF used the classic tactic of defense in depth three zones of anti-missile missiles, low, high and outside the atmosphere. Arrow 3, David’s Sling, and the Iron Dome system worked as advertised, with as far as I know the first armed ICBMs being interdicted in outer space.  

ICBMs and cruise missiles were destroyed in Houthi held Yemen as they were in the launching process. Chalk one up to the intelligence arms of allied nations. To attack at the proper time in the launching cycle is a very difficult process, telling us the intelligence, human (HUMINT), electronic (SIGINT), and Imagery (IMINT) along with open source was spot on.  

It is difficult using open-source intelligence to determine just how many missiles actually struck their intended targets, but reports of dozens of wounded tell us some did. The Israel Defense Forces do not want to be artillery spotters for Iranian Revolutionary Guard Rocket Forces, so information on which targets were hit when, will not be reported, a sound military move by the Israelis.

President Biden again stated his articulate policy in dealing with belligerent nations by saying, “don’t, just don’t.” It failed with the Russian Federation, Hamas, the Houthis and now the Iranians; perhaps our President needs a new message.

The real story behind this attack will come out, but it will be many years before we know the truth about what happened. Why did the massive attack fail so massively? Are the allied missile defenses that good or are the Iranian rocket forces that bad? Are our intelligence agencies that good or is the Iranians operational security that bad?

One good thing to come out of the destruction of over 300 Iranian drones and missiles is that there will be 300 fewer the Iranians can sell to the Russian Federation for their war on the Ukraine. My opinion.