by Robert M. Traxler
After a lifetime of studying military science, I must say the Iranian attack on Israel ranks among the strangest things I ever studied.
During military science courses in high school, college and a master’s degree in military science and studies from the Command and General Staff College, I never studied a stranger attack. The Iranians are either inept or incompetent.
The Iranians’ attack was telegraphed to Israel. The Iranians called up the Swiss and gave them the time, locations and weaponry to be used. The United States and our allies knew it was coming for days, as did the other nations in the Mideast; some of the drones had their landing lights on and many missiles were launched from known existing launch sites in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
The question must be — are the Iranians communications security and counter surveillance security so inept, or did they want to fail in their attack? Are the allied intelligence agencies that competent or are the Israelis anti-missile defenses that good? Perhaps both.
In excess of 300 drones, ICBMs, and battlefield low trajectory missiles were fired at Israel and very few landed on the intended target. One theory is that the Iranians had to retaliate for the killing of a top Iranian commander in Syria by the Israelis. They needed to save face by mounting an attack, but also wanted to avoid all-out war by telegraphing their intentions.
A hard decision faces our President: will he push for a response or not? President Biden is reportedly telling President Netanyahu to “take the win” and let it go, a smart short term political move to placate the anti-Israel, pro-Hamas voters in the Democrat base, but a historically wrong military course of action for the Israel Defense Force (IDF).
A direct attack on Israel from Iran cannot be tolerated and must be countered; Iran must pay a price for an open military action against a sovereign nation. In my opinion, we need to use the attack on Israel as an invitation to allow the IDF to reduce the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program to rubble and reduce Iran’s capability to produce drones and missiles. It will not happen, as our government appears hell bent on seeing Iran get the bomb and arm the Russians with offensive weapons; a good question is why.
The IDF used the classic tactic of defense in depth three zones of anti-missile missiles, low, high and outside the atmosphere. Arrow 3, David’s Sling, and the Iron Dome system worked as advertised, with as far as I know the first armed ICBMs being interdicted in outer space.
ICBMs and cruise missiles were destroyed in Houthi held Yemen as they were in the launching process. Chalk one up to the intelligence arms of allied nations. To attack at the proper time in the launching cycle is a very difficult process, telling us the intelligence, human (HUMINT), electronic (SIGINT), and Imagery (IMINT) along with open source was spot on.
It is difficult using open-source intelligence to determine just how many missiles actually struck their intended targets, but reports of dozens of wounded tell us some did. The Israel Defense Forces do not want to be artillery spotters for Iranian Revolutionary Guard Rocket Forces, so information on which targets were hit when, will not be reported, a sound military move by the Israelis.
President Biden again stated his articulate policy in dealing with belligerent nations by saying, “don’t, just don’t.” It failed with the Russian Federation, Hamas, the Houthis and now the Iranians; perhaps our President needs a new message.
The real story behind this attack will come out, but it will be many years before we know the truth about what happened. Why did the massive attack fail so massively? Are the allied missile defenses that good or are the Iranian rocket forces that bad? Are our intelligence agencies that good or is the Iranians operational security that bad?
One good thing to come out of the destruction of over 300 Iranian drones and missiles is that there will be 300 fewer the Iranians can sell to the Russian Federation for their war on the Ukraine. My opinion.
RMT,
It appears as though you are ignoring Iran’s stated motivation for this retaliatory effort. Perhaps I misunderstand your view, it is not clear, and seems intentionally omitted.
Everyone involved waited around for approximately ten days, preparing for this response.
While Israel technically has deniability, it is well known why this was initiated. Some would say this recent back and forth is part of the goading and ongoing efforts to ratchet up conflict in the area by Zionist ideologues.
It is indeed a very strange effort. Part of me wonders if it was intentionally lame in order to feign capability. Another theory is that it was a probing test of Israeli defenses, or an effort at depleting resources. It is possible that was all they could muster for a show of force.
Whatever the true motivation or goal, it would of course be foolish to disregard or ignore any potential ability going forward. Especially in light of the desire for escalation from parties on multiple fronts.
Mr. Baloney,
Thank you for the comment.
Your point leaves out the attack on Israel on October 7th, your words “Some would say this recent back and forth is part of the goading and ongoing efforts to ratchet up conflict in the area by Zionist ideologues.” It also leaves out the attack on Israel by an excess of 300 ICBMs and Drones on April 13th. But let’s blame “Zionist ideologues” it fits the Progressive narrative.
Thanks again for the comment.
I don’t see anywhere in your own narrative here where you acknowledge that Israel is committing genocide against innocent people, Bob. Thankfully none of this is relevant to our small existence in Wayland.
Liberal + Progressive = Marxist
What you are seeing of our formerly esteemed Ivy League colleges, specifically Columbia, is mass indoctrination into Marxist ideology, culminating into Palistinian support for aggression and killing of Jews and hate for Israel in general. It also calls for overthrow of America, the republican form of government, and capitalism.
Of course most of these participants in protest thrive under capitalism and the protection of the Constitution to protest all they want peacefully. How this hatred of Jews fomenting is not surprising, as all colleges and universities are liberal and some wildly so. This is due to Marxist professors being influenced by leftist ideology financed by the likes of George Soros, a Jew turned Nazi collaborator during WWII, helping to turn in his fellow Jews to annihilation in concentration camps. Now, due to capitalism, old George is spreading the hate for his birth race by plying millions of dollars in political races and college boardrooms. This promotes the hatred of police, law and order, and most egreviously the hatred for his own race. His is the face of the Devil personified. Not surprisingly, he is also one of the biggest doners to the Democrat Party.
And so it goes. The decline of America continues.
Mr. Gless,
The October 7 attack by Hamas was not committing genocide against Jews?
Are you an anti-Semite? It’s OK to say you are if you are, I think everyone should know if you support Hamas and “from the river to the sea” ideology.
There are innocents killed in every war, but I am of the belief the IDF is doing everything they can to limit collateral death of innocents. Hamas likes to use civilian shields and the vast majority of people in Gaza support Hamas and the killing of Jews.
I’m glad someone of Bibi’s background and overall restraint is in charge.
I doubt I would be so merciful. They weren’t on October 7