NATO is at a crossroads. It was designed to counter the USSR and later the Warsaw Pact. The question is, is NATO going to prevent the reconstitution of the of the USSR with its very effective alliances and control over Eastern Europe?
Ukraine, Georgia, and Hungary are vital to a new Russian empire, and President Vladimir Putin has taken portions of Ukraine and Georgia, annexing them to the Russian Federation with no lasting penalties. NATO must draw a line and make President Putin and the Russian expansionists understand it. President Trump calling for NATO to pay its fair share of readiness does not seem so dumb after all.
We need to keep an eye on Russian reserve forces. To date, a few have been activated, but not a full mobilization. Historically full mobilization of reserve forces has indicated a major offensive is imminent. However, moving the naval infantry (the force we refer to as Marines) from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea is an indication of imminent action. Putin is good at keeping his foes guessing.
The Russian Federation has deployed troops in Moldova and Belarus, Spetznats (Special Operations forces) in battalion strength and conventional forces in division strength in Belarus, staging them as close to Ukraine’s capital of Kiev as we are to Lansing.
In my opinion (and yes this is an opinion column), Russia will not use its conventional forces first. Putin will try insurgent forces backed by 17,000 Spetsnaz with assistance from limited air attack assets. If that fails or runs into difficulty, he will unleash the armed forces of the Russian Federation, a force that is a blunt instrument.
Tactical doctrine calls for the use of massed artillery, hundreds of tubes of conventional artillery, lined hub to hub, rocket artillery and massed armor with close support from ground support aircraft. They will control the battle space above the entire nation of Ukraine and defeat the Ukrainian forces in days.
The Hungarian Revolution of 1956 can give us some insight into Russian doctrine. The revolutionary forces defeated the small Russian garrison, so in short order massed Russian armored forces were in Budapest crushing the revolt with extreme violence.
Ukraine has massive resources, including oil and gas, coal, iron, manganese, titanium, and rare earth metals vital to next generation electronics. Ukraine has 0.04% of the earth’s surface but 5% of all known minerals. The Russians will attempt to capture the mining infrastructure intact using special operations forces, but if not successful they will unleash their conventional forces with devastating results. Â
Ukraine has 0.5% of the world’s population but produces 16% of the worlds grain. Ukraine exports 36 million tons of grain annually, with resources vital to Russian expansion; President Putin needs them as reliable allies or a subjugated state.
The Germans have turned their backs on the NATO alliance because they are dependent on Russian gas and oil. Putin served in the KGB in Germany for years and understands the German leadership better than any other world leader; he has played them like a master violinist plays a Stradivarius.
Leaders of France and two other NATO nations have met with or are scheduled to meet with Putin in the near future, showing the weakness and lack of leadership we see on the world stage. The Russians seized the vital Black Sea port of Sevastopol when President Joe Biden was Vice President, and he has many of the same people in the Department of State today who allowed its occupation with no lasting repercussions. One could even say without any repercussions, in the case of the Nord Stream pipeline, with international rewards.
President Biden’s brother and son have been on the payroll of people in Ukraine, receiving millions; his family’s actions open him to criticism, justifiable or not, so he must tread lightly in dealing with this international crisis.
With the lack of unity in NATO, France and Germany bowing to Putin, and the distances involved, we cannot support a land force in Ukraine. Putin will occupy Ukraine and be rewarded with food, minerals, gas and oil, and be a thousand miles closer to other former Warsaw Pact nations that he wants in the new Socialist Republic of Russia.
My opinion.
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