NATO is at a crossroads. It was designed to counter the USSR and later the Warsaw Pact. The question is, is NATO going to prevent the reconstitution of the of the USSR with its very effective alliances and control over Eastern Europe?
Ukraine, Georgia, and Hungary are vital to a new Russian empire, and President Vladimir Putin has taken portions of Ukraine and Georgia, annexing them to the Russian Federation with no lasting penalties. NATO must draw a line and make President Putin and the Russian expansionists understand it. President Trump calling for NATO to pay its fair share of readiness does not seem so dumb after all.
We need to keep an eye on Russian reserve forces. To date, a few have been activated, but not a full mobilization. Historically full mobilization of reserve forces has indicated a major offensive is imminent. However, moving the naval infantry (the force we refer to as Marines) from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea is an indication of imminent action. Putin is good at keeping his foes guessing.
The Russian Federation has deployed troops in Moldova and Belarus, Spetznats (Special Operations forces) in battalion strength and conventional forces in division strength in Belarus, staging them as close to Ukraine’s capital of Kiev as we are to Lansing.
In my opinion (and yes this is an opinion column), Russia will not use its conventional forces first. Putin will try insurgent forces backed by 17,000 Spetsnaz with assistance from limited air attack assets. If that fails or runs into difficulty, he will unleash the armed forces of the Russian Federation, a force that is a blunt instrument.
Tactical doctrine calls for the use of massed artillery, hundreds of tubes of conventional artillery, lined hub to hub, rocket artillery and massed armor with close support from ground support aircraft. They will control the battle space above the entire nation of Ukraine and defeat the Ukrainian forces in days.
The Hungarian Revolution of 1956 can give us some insight into Russian doctrine. The revolutionary forces defeated the small Russian garrison, so in short order massed Russian armored forces were in Budapest crushing the revolt with extreme violence.
Ukraine has massive resources, including oil and gas, coal, iron, manganese, titanium, and rare earth metals vital to next generation electronics. Ukraine has 0.04% of the earth’s surface but 5% of all known minerals. The Russians will attempt to capture the mining infrastructure intact using special operations forces, but if not successful they will unleash their conventional forces with devastating results.
Ukraine has 0.5% of the world’s population but produces 16% of the worlds grain. Ukraine exports 36 million tons of grain annually, with resources vital to Russian expansion; President Putin needs them as reliable allies or a subjugated state.
The Germans have turned their backs on the NATO alliance because they are dependent on Russian gas and oil. Putin served in the KGB in Germany for years and understands the German leadership better than any other world leader; he has played them like a master violinist plays a Stradivarius.
Leaders of France and two other NATO nations have met with or are scheduled to meet with Putin in the near future, showing the weakness and lack of leadership we see on the world stage. The Russians seized the vital Black Sea port of Sevastopol when President Joe Biden was Vice President, and he has many of the same people in the Department of State today who allowed its occupation with no lasting repercussions. One could even say without any repercussions, in the case of the Nord Stream pipeline, with international rewards.
President Biden’s brother and son have been on the payroll of people in Ukraine, receiving millions; his family’s actions open him to criticism, justifiable or not, so he must tread lightly in dealing with this international crisis.
With the lack of unity in NATO, France and Germany bowing to Putin, and the distances involved, we cannot support a land force in Ukraine. Putin will occupy Ukraine and be rewarded with food, minerals, gas and oil, and be a thousand miles closer to other former Warsaw Pact nations that he wants in the new Socialist Republic of Russia.
My opinion.
Expert analysis! The nattering nabobs of the Left haven’t commented yet? Now that DTOM has, get ready for the piling on by the Leftists! Love Army Bob!
DTOM,
Thanks for the comment. We will see what the next week brings in Ukraine, and we will see if the USSR is reborn under Putin. Ukraine will give Putin a 25% military and economic power increase.
With dementia Joe, Putin is unopposed and NATO is toothless and will be unresponsive to any aggression.
Ukraine is in a precarious situation and any American needs to leave before the action starts.
If Trump were president, Putin would never have tried this, he would have put the Russian economy on the skids and he never would approve the pipeline Joe approved.
Let’s face it, we have the worst president we’ve ever had In modern times. God help us the next 3 years!
This is actually a refreshing take for a change, it feels like you are truly in your wheelhouse on this topic. This information, and again, your service, are much appreciated. Although I suspect that my and most others appreciation matters little, suspect you did your work for greater purposes. I have a few related questions that your relevant knowledge may be able to answer and enlighten. Do you know or recall if the USA has ever been in direct OPEN conflict with the USSR/Russia before? Also curious if you dare speculate on wether or not this situation will develop into a type of Cold War 2.0, or is this the beginning match of WW3?
It is my understanding that we have been in a form of covert conflict with “Ussrussia” since at least the early 1950s. Sufficient evidence exists that we fought against MIG fighter jets during the Korean Conflict. We most obviously fought against, at the least, Ussrussian designed and sometimes directly produced hardware and even methods in a form of proxy warfare in that situation, the Veitnamees/Laotian conflict, the Afghanistan conflict, and many smaller “skirmishes” scattered throughout this time frame.
I am aware, as are other’s with certain innate skill sets, that we have been in a form of conflict WITHIN each other’s borders since at least 1950 as well. This form of direct conflict has, of course, taken on many faces and used an untold number of methods. Most notable in my mind would be the many unsuccessful and sometimes actually successful efforts to undermine, influence, and “turn” our political process. They have battled relentlessly on influencing, effecting, and compromising untold numbers of both political and military officers. I would like to believe you and most others are well aware of these realities.
This long rehashing brings me to the bit I take issue with, your assumption and assertion of where our former leaders motives, and actions in practice lie. It is my and others observation and conclusion that The Donald was/is likely a compromised asset. His hubris and financial standpoint belie a certain vulnerability to these methods. His actions quite evident of where his loyalty stands. I realize this is an immensely overwhelming, potentially earth shattering, observation and assertion.
I’ll save my fingers the full sum of the numerous examples that highlight this belief. However I will touch on what I believe to be notable. I encourage you and others to personally research this issue with an attempt at objectivity and openness to a better understanding of the reality of the situation. One should not and will likely not want to just take the word of some faceless individual with a seemingly fictional identity.
I believe it started in a significant portion of our citizens minds with the state funded arm of propaganda that is RT media. The events of the Miss Universe pageant in 2013 are at the least worthy of scrutiny under this context. The actual status of his financial standpoint and indebtedness, specifically to which financial entities, are beyond worthy of objective evaluation. Once his presidency was cemented, his actions were very telling as to what loyalties existed. The look on Lavrov and Kislyak’s faces on 5-10-2017 in our oval office are what poker players would likely deem, “The tell of the century”. The unrelenting approach of actually handicapping NATO objectives and missions is outright self evident. Words matter little in these realities, actions are everything. The way our president carried himself like a dog on a leash at the press conference/ meeting with former intelligence officer Vladimir on 7-16-2018 will be something history will not soon forget.
In this great, hopefully strong, united nation of ours we are free to think and feel whatever we desire. It is a wonderful feeling, and affords one an amazing sense of freedom. It does come with an often unacknowledged pitfall, that the things we believe are often manipulated and are quite frankly not factual.
I find it helpful when attempting to remain objective while in a mode of analysis and evaluation, to practice proper deep breathing and a form of meditation. It can be helpful and even therapeutic to listen to music, however one should be mindful of the impact of lyrical accompaniment, it can influence thinking on unrelated issues. It can be supremely effective to perform some form of physical exercise while processing newly absorbed information.
If you haven’t seen this performance yet Sir, I suggest it as a helpful tool.
https://youtu.be/qoQtcgNSfNw
Thank you for the comment.
1918 to 1920 American forces fought the Russian Revolutionaries on Russian soil in and near Vladivostok, mostly troops from Michigan by the way, who landed at Archangel on 4 September 1918. A few good books on the operation are available. Called the Polar Bear Expedition, it was designed to keep Russia in World War I to help the allies.
The rest of the comment is too lengthy to reply in detail. Thanks for the comment.
Thank You for this info, It shines a light on history that helps inform judgement. The rest of my ramblings I had hoped would stand on their own. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Tony, I believe your last name describes you succinctly. Are you awaiting your free pipe from Uncle Joe? Put on some free love music and drop some acid… I’m sure you are no stranger to hallucination drugs or situations. You may want to get with Hunter Biden, I hear he likes drugs, sex and rock and roll. Joe has no idea where he is so I doubt he could join you. Besides, his Depends need changing.
“Your mother was a hamster and your father smells of eldeberries,” Monty Python’s tribute to playground taunting, complete with insulting nicknames and innuendos.
Thing is the MP quote is sort of accurate in a way. At least made me laugh heartily, thanks. The rage that is ensconced twords the Biden’s and anyone assumed to be a fan of theirs, is humerous at first glance as well. Although after a bit of pondering is alarming to a degree, and ultimately depressingly pitiful.
It is possible that you may in fact be the dopey one. At the very least a strong indication of a lack of maturity. Good day to you as well!
My friends in western Europe have suggested to me that gullible audiences in Russia and the U.S.A. may actually be viewing 2022’s version of the 1997 movie “Wag The Dog,” which starred Dustin Hoffman and Robert De Niro. Get your popcorn ready… time will tell.
Mr. Traxler, Bob,
I find myself rereading this column each day as we inch closer to Russia’s seeming inevitable invasion of Ukraine. Thanks for your military view and expertise on this one.
I’m not sure it’s 100% inevitable at this point, but I’m more sure of the invasion than a diplomatic solution. Whatever happens, I’m sure Comrade Putin has designs on receiving some of the riches of Ukraine, and the concessions of the free world.