Army Bob: Russia will take at least 1/3 of Ukraine soon

by Robert M. Traxler

Russia and the Ukraine will cross swords in my opinion; it will not be pretty for Ukraine, as the Russians have overwhelming air assets and will control the battle space hundreds of miles deeper than the Forward line of Troops. The Ukraine military will be denied resupply and repair of its equipment and dissolve into a disorganized mob, not unlike the Iraqi army under Saddam Husain in Gulf War I.

The Russians have in excess of 600 attack ground support aircraft, and merely need to fall back when resistance is met and destroy the Ukraine strong points with massed air and artillery. Most of Ukraine’s military will never encounter a Russian soldier and die in place, defeated by a lack of logistics and massive Russian fire superiority.

If the Ukrainians are smart, they will defend the cities and villages, areas the Russian cannot use their cluster munitions to maximum effect. Their only hope is to bleed the Russian army, to run up the body count of Russians, to the extent that the average Ivan (an old nickname for Russians) will be angered. Ukraine has no hope of winning, but if they can make the cost unacceptable to the average Russian citizen, President Putin may need to limit the war or even withdraw his troops.     

President Vladimir Putin needs an overwhelming victory to sell his vision of a reincarnated Union of Soviet Socialist Republics to the Russian people. Russia has real economic and social problems, so to divert the narrative from the economy and appeal to the Russians’ strong nationalistic feelings, he needs an overwhelming victory, one that will mirror the Gulf Wars I and II. 

The Russians should stop at the Dnieper River, historically the major barrier for the Russian move west.  It was called the Wotan line in WWII; if they do stop at the Dnieper, the west and President Joe Biden will say they “contained Russian aggression” with strong language and “crippling trade restrictions.” Putin will be able to say he “liberated” areas of Ukraine that saw the Russian-speaking minority suffer racism and bigotry at the hands of the Ukrainian majority. NATO and the Russian Federation will both claim victory; the only immediate losers will be the Ukrainian people.

No one in NATO will mention that Russia is yet one step closer to the glory days of the Soviet Socialist Republics being reborn, along with the Russian dominance of Eastern Europe.

The natural resources (grain, gas, oil, and mineral deposits) will aid the Russian economy and if history repeats itself, will add to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Mother Russia. Putin, who as in all socialist leaders, has played the system so that he holds power until at least 2036 if not even longer, has time to mold a nation into his concept of a socialist utopia, with Putin as the dear leader.

The Russian move into Ukraine is reminiscent of the German National Socialist Party’s move into the Sudetenland and then all of Czechoslovakia before the start of World War II. As Adolph Hitler needed the Czechoslovakian industrial and mineral assets, Putin needs the rare earth metals and food production of Ukraine along with its oil, gas, coal, and manufacturing assets, to give Russia a rebirth on the world stage.

France and Germany have told Putin to go ahead and invade not directly, but they have broken with the NATO Alliance, showing the disunity that signals acceptance of invasion, along with our President, who has sent signals to Putin that a “limited incursion” would be acceptable. Biden has been squarely on all sides of this problem depending on what day it is or even what time of the day it is, the kind of indecision President Putin likes to hear.

A unified NATO and a strong stance from our President, coupled with real military assistance in anti-aircraft and anti-tank assets, may have deterred Putin. It is now too late; in excess of 33% of Ukraine will be added to a new Soviet Socialist Republic in a few days not even weeks of battle.

My opinion.