by Robert M. Traxler

A recent post on the Institute for the Study of War WEB site, one I highly recommend you use as a nonpartisan source, made the point the Russian people are not supporting their war on the Ukraine to the extent they did a few short months ago. “A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February 2023 and that more Russians support a withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine than do not.

Independent Russian opposition polling organization Chronicles stated that data from its Oct.r 17-22, 2023, telephone survey indicates that respondents who are “consistent” supporters of the war — those who expressed support for the war, do not support a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine without Russia having achieved its war aims, and think that Russia should prioritize military spending — decreased from 22 percent to 12 percent between February 2023 and October 2023.”

In the cold cruel endeavor that is war we have always seen a war weariness factor. In WWII, 10,000 Americans fled to Canada to avoid the draft and the Marines fell short of voluntary enlistments and Marines were drafted, war weariness was a factor even in our greatest generation. The Russian’s are no different. If we can keep our support for the Ukraine, we can see the Russian Federation and President Vladimir Putin suing for the wars end, it will take a year or more but if our support for the war continues and we provide the tools Ukraine must have to fight the war we can inflict a blow to international expansionism. The Russian Federation and China will be far less likely to invade neighbors and upset the world balance rendering nuclear war less probable. 

The use of the Wagner Group of mercenaries by the Russian Federation was an act to isolate the average Natasha and Boris from the reality of war. Many of the Wagner group’s soldiers were recruited from the Russian penal system and not the person next door so Russians had limited sympathy for them. The drafted and volunteers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are a different story. The Wagner Groups mercenary force has seen massive losses, so the regular forces are now dying in larger numbers to the dislike of Russian people. 

The goal of the Armed forces of Ukraine is clear and simple, kill a lot of Russians; the more they kill the quicker the war will end, the sooner war weariness will set in. We need to ask what happened to the F-16 fighter aircraft President Biden promised, we were going to provide the Ukraine Air Force. Even the ones other NATO nations were going to be allowed to provide. Every time an offensive is launched, the Russians use air superiority to stop it cold. Every time a Russian defensive belt is broken, the breach is filled by attack aircraft, fixed and rotary wing. 

F-16 Fighting Falcons would allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to win tactical local air domination allowing the Ukraine forces to exploit a local break out and rase hell in the Russian rear areas, killing many Russian armed forces. A victory even a local victory only seizing a few miles of Russian held Ukraine would serve to sour Boris and Natasha against the war. President Putin had a 90-plus percent approval rating in Russia the latest news is indeed outstanding more Russians disapprove of the war then approve. We need to stay the course and continue support for Ukraine, support that is not popular among my fellow conservatives.

A Russian loss will affect the way the Chinese look at Taiwan and the way the Russian Federation looks at its neighbors, even NATO members. The world will be a less dangerous place if the Russians are defeated and leave Ukraine. A Russian Federation with the addition of Ukraine will have an increase of 40% in economic and military power and will be an even more dangerous enemy.

Give the Ukraine the aircraft they need and please, President Biden, let them win. My opinion.