by Robert M. Traxler
A recent post on the Institute for the Study of War WEB site, one I highly recommend you use as a nonpartisan source, made the point the Russian people are not supporting their war on the Ukraine to the extent they did a few short months ago. “A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February 2023 and that more Russians support a withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine than do not.
Independent Russian opposition polling organization Chronicles stated that data from its Oct.r 17-22, 2023, telephone survey indicates that respondents who are “consistent” supporters of the war — those who expressed support for the war, do not support a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine without Russia having achieved its war aims, and think that Russia should prioritize military spending — decreased from 22 percent to 12 percent between February 2023 and October 2023.”
In the cold cruel endeavor that is war we have always seen a war weariness factor. In WWII, 10,000 Americans fled to Canada to avoid the draft and the Marines fell short of voluntary enlistments and Marines were drafted, war weariness was a factor even in our greatest generation. The Russian’s are no different. If we can keep our support for the Ukraine, we can see the Russian Federation and President Vladimir Putin suing for the wars end, it will take a year or more but if our support for the war continues and we provide the tools Ukraine must have to fight the war we can inflict a blow to international expansionism. The Russian Federation and China will be far less likely to invade neighbors and upset the world balance rendering nuclear war less probable.
The use of the Wagner Group of mercenaries by the Russian Federation was an act to isolate the average Natasha and Boris from the reality of war. Many of the Wagner group’s soldiers were recruited from the Russian penal system and not the person next door so Russians had limited sympathy for them. The drafted and volunteers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are a different story. The Wagner Groups mercenary force has seen massive losses, so the regular forces are now dying in larger numbers to the dislike of Russian people.
The goal of the Armed forces of Ukraine is clear and simple, kill a lot of Russians; the more they kill the quicker the war will end, the sooner war weariness will set in. We need to ask what happened to the F-16 fighter aircraft President Biden promised, we were going to provide the Ukraine Air Force. Even the ones other NATO nations were going to be allowed to provide. Every time an offensive is launched, the Russians use air superiority to stop it cold. Every time a Russian defensive belt is broken, the breach is filled by attack aircraft, fixed and rotary wing.
F-16 Fighting Falcons would allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to win tactical local air domination allowing the Ukraine forces to exploit a local break out and rase hell in the Russian rear areas, killing many Russian armed forces. A victory even a local victory only seizing a few miles of Russian held Ukraine would serve to sour Boris and Natasha against the war. President Putin had a 90-plus percent approval rating in Russia the latest news is indeed outstanding more Russians disapprove of the war then approve. We need to stay the course and continue support for Ukraine, support that is not popular among my fellow conservatives.
A Russian loss will affect the way the Chinese look at Taiwan and the way the Russian Federation looks at its neighbors, even NATO members. The world will be a less dangerous place if the Russians are defeated and leave Ukraine. A Russian Federation with the addition of Ukraine will have an increase of 40% in economic and military power and will be an even more dangerous enemy.
Give the Ukraine the aircraft they need and please, President Biden, let them win. My opinion.
RMT,
This is a very well done assessment, not that you need my approval. I wholeheartedly agree that air superiority is crucial and paramount.
My understanding, which could be entirely wrong, is that it is not as simple as just giving them the aircraft. There is a considerable knowledge and training gap for the specific type. Not only for the pilots, but also for the ground and maintenance crews. These airframes are unforgiving, requiring high levels of training and experience with a huge amount of ground work vs time in the air.
As much as I would be “all for” existing trained and experienced aircrew “joining the fight”, as far as I know this is the “line in the sand” that was at the core of Putin’s nuclear threats. As far as I’m concerned, we owe the “motherland” a bit of payback for their part with pilots and hardware during the Korean war.
Nonetheless, it is also my understanding that other nations agreed to donate their hardware to Ukraine if we sell them new replacement aircraft. From what I know this was agreed on many months ago. There are headlines today regarding the F16 donations from the Netherlands.
Again it comes down to who is going to fly and keep them in the air. Do they take their top people out of the fight, and send them off to intensive, months long training? I believe this has likely been ongoing to a degree. I assume you are well aware of the trade-off.
It is worth mention that this is the first major conflict with UAV’s of all levels in significant use on both sides. It is obvious a lot of experimenting, developing, and real world experience is occuring with all involved parties. I don’t think I need to mention how this is much more efficient, and that it also saves on the personnel aspect.
You may find it interesting to look into a company catching a lot of press lately, Anduril. From what is being shown publicly, it is quite revolutionary from a hardware and software capability standpoint. What is perhaps even more impressive, is that they are supposedly using novel procedures to effectively “end run” the typical development and procurement process to rapidly get systems in play. I imagine you are well aware of how huge this is regarding how slow things traditionally move.
In an attempt to save space, I won’t bore everyone with the various efforts at providing land based interception systems that have been and will likely continue to be provided and implemented.
I wish it were as easy as just blaming things on the “guy at the top”. I honestly know that it is far more complicated than that. I would like believe you fully understand this. Nonetheless, I think we agree that what is needed, are more systems “in the wind” sooner than later.
Mr. Baloney,
Thanks for the comment. When President Biden “promised” F-16 almost a year ago the trained MIG 21 maintenance crews from the Ukraine Air Force started transition training to the F-16s as did the aviators. Training is on going in Poland and Germany, both nations want to provide F-16s to Ukraine but can not with out our approval. We could allow Ukraine to fly the Fighting Falcons today the Ukraine Air Force is trained in maintained and operations. Good point on the train up time needed to transition to a new air frame. Thanks for the comment.