by Robert M. Traxler
The much talked about spring offensive is ongoing, as the Military Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) are attacking on three fronts and in my opinion a fourth axis of advance is a faint designed to spread Russian troops thinner in defense. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam blunted the ZSUs main attack, a humanitarian disaster, and a public relations nightmare but a sound military tactic on the Russians part.
Russian doctrine calls for from 1 to 5 defensive belts consisting of land mines, tank ditches, wire and anti-armor obstacles, all augmented with direct fire and indirect fire weapons. The Russian tactics go back to World War Two and are still effective. Attacking through the defensive belts reduces the attacking force and at the proper point the Russians counterattack. It is early to see if Russia has the troops and material to launch an effective counterattack.
The ZSU has not been very successful yet, but these things take time. The Ukrainian losses in troops and equipment will be large and they have already lost a large percentage of the Bradley Fighting Vehicles we and NATO have provided along with tanks and other offensive weapons.
President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating is 80%, up from 77% in Mother Russia. That number varies according to who you are reading, but the general number is mostly above 66%. Like President Putin or not, and I don’t, but the Russian people love the guy, a lot. The Russian people are not suffering many hardships because of the economic restrictions and sanctions thanks to the massive support from nations like, Iran, China, India, Belarus, Venezuela (using American oil money, thanks to our dependence on foreign oil), Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, and to a lesser extent, two dozen others, and one NATO member, Turkey.
Russia is selling oil at a reduced price if a nation accepts dealing in rubles, skirting sanctions and propping up the ruble. Saudi Arbia limiting its oil production has propped up the cost of oil, indirectly benefiting the Russians. Blame must go out to our President for pushing the Iran nuclear deal and calling the Saudi’s international pariahs and a criminal nation. It’s no big surprise they are cutting production and increasing cost. Saudi Arbia’s not going along with their historical enemy’s, Iran, having a nuclear arsenal is the root cause of the disagreement. Quite frankly I can not understand why the progressive/socialist movement wants a nuclear Iran? Perhaps it is the distain many have for Israel?
President Putin’s approval rating gives him time to outlast the NATO support for Ukraine, indeed some of my fellow Mega Republicans, or terrorists if you follow our President’s rhetoric, are against supporting the Ukraine. The Cold war cost us from 13 to 26 trillion (in 1996 dollars) and more than 150,000 lives. Do we want to see the bad old days back? The Ukraine is killing Russians and if we have the intestinal fortitude to support them for the long run, we can stop an imperialistic, expansionist Russia bent on recreating the glory days of the Union of Soviet Socialists Republic.
To see a new Cold War all we need to do is allow Russia to annex the Ukraine and gain a 40% increase in military and economic power. We tend to think Russia and President Putin are dangerous now, with a 40% increase in strength they will be a genuine threat to NATO and our nation.
Russia is excellent on the defense and finding a weakness in their defensive posture will be arduous and costly. The rule of thumb is a four to one loss rate offensive to defensive operations. The Russian defense is being successful, in part because of air superiority in fixed and rotary wing assets not allowing the ZSU to mass surfeit combat power at the point of attack. The Ukraine needs the promised F-16 Fighting Falcons sooner rather than latter, to counter Russian air dominance.
And where is the promised results of the data recovered from the Chinese “Weather balloon”? Next to the report on who destroyed the Nord Stream pipeline. My opinion, yours may differ.