by Robert M. Traxler

As predicted, Russian President Vladimir Putin did what was expected of him, and we are not in a position to stop or even limit him in Ukraine. Our response has been “tough sanctions;” the Russian Bear is quaking in its boots over that one, but in reality there is not much more we can do.

The Russian Aerospace Forces who dominate the air space over the entire country will make any western resupply by air into Ukraine impossible, even if anyone wishes to assist. They have also used the VDV (Russian Airborne forces) to control air fields and open them up to be used as reinforcement and resupply centers for ground forces and bases for air forces, deep inside Ukraine.  

The Russian plan is very ambitious, with four main columns each with a wide axis of advance. The question is, can the regular or irregular forces of Ukraine cut or limit the supply operations to the Russian forces?

History teaches us that those logistical operations with direct fire air support are effective. This goes back to the “Blitzkrieg” of Poland and France in WWII; using the excellent JU 87 Stuka dive bomber as aerial artillery, the German forces were able to protect the flanks of the four German columns advancing in France. The Russians have more than 600 ground attack aircraft in theater; conventional thinking is that will be sufficient, however, time will tell.

The speed of the Russian advance will be its best ally; logistics are not a problem for an attacking unit in the short run. After three days or more, each one of the four attacking Russian columns will need massive resupply and repair to continue attacking. Resupply of all 10 classes of supply, everything from munitions to vodka/cigarettes, beans to bullets, medical supplies to POL (petroleum, oil and lubricants).

An axiom in the profession of arms is that amateurs study tactics, and professionals study logistics. As General Douglas MacArthur said, the history of all lost causes can be summed up in four words: “too little, too late.” War is 95% logistics and 5% battle.

To all the armchair generals, it is nice to know what tactics Hannibal Barca used to defeat the Romans at the Battle of Cannae in 218BC, but a true professional will study how Hannibal got his army, including cavalry and war elephants, over the Alps in the winter.    

Ukraine has a long history of irregular forces attacking occupying armies, going back to the time of Russian Czar Ivan the IV, better known as Ivan the Terrible (1533-1584). The effectiveness of the guerrilla operations will be determined by the support from the population. With massive popular support it can be effective; without it, any insurgency will quickly die from a lack of logistical support.

Do not judge popular support for a unconventional operation today; the test will be in months even years after the occupation is established. Do the people of Ukraine have the will to resist and suffer in the long run, or will they value creature comforts over resistance? Time will tell.

We are seeing talk of a peace treaty; Ukraine stands no chance of winning or holding out for any length of time. Stories of the 13 Ukrainian border guards telling two Russian naval vessels demanding their surrender to “go f*** yourselves” and then dying in place are nice and make a good story, but do not stop or even slow the massive Russian assault. Lacking resupply or any hope of other assistance, the Ukraine military is becoming less effective with every hour that passes.

Unless the Russian people demand the war to stop, it will not, and the Russians will have a glorious victory. Stories of the people being armed are good, but they will not stop the Russian advance.

My opinion.