by Robert M. Traxler
As predicted, Russian President Vladimir Putin did what was expected of him, and we are not in a position to stop or even limit him in Ukraine. Our response has been “tough sanctions;” the Russian Bear is quaking in its boots over that one, but in reality there is not much more we can do.
The Russian Aerospace Forces who dominate the air space over the entire country will make any western resupply by air into Ukraine impossible, even if anyone wishes to assist. They have also used the VDV (Russian Airborne forces) to control air fields and open them up to be used as reinforcement and resupply centers for ground forces and bases for air forces, deep inside Ukraine.
The Russian plan is very ambitious, with four main columns each with a wide axis of advance. The question is, can the regular or irregular forces of Ukraine cut or limit the supply operations to the Russian forces?
History teaches us that those logistical operations with direct fire air support are effective. This goes back to the “Blitzkrieg” of Poland and France in WWII; using the excellent JU 87 Stuka dive bomber as aerial artillery, the German forces were able to protect the flanks of the four German columns advancing in France. The Russians have more than 600 ground attack aircraft in theater; conventional thinking is that will be sufficient, however, time will tell.
The speed of the Russian advance will be its best ally; logistics are not a problem for an attacking unit in the short run. After three days or more, each one of the four attacking Russian columns will need massive resupply and repair to continue attacking. Resupply of all 10 classes of supply, everything from munitions to vodka/cigarettes, beans to bullets, medical supplies to POL (petroleum, oil and lubricants).
An axiom in the profession of arms is that amateurs study tactics, and professionals study logistics. As General Douglas MacArthur said, the history of all lost causes can be summed up in four words: “too little, too late.” War is 95% logistics and 5% battle.
To all the armchair generals, it is nice to know what tactics Hannibal Barca used to defeat the Romans at the Battle of Cannae in 218BC, but a true professional will study how Hannibal got his army, including cavalry and war elephants, over the Alps in the winter.
Ukraine has a long history of irregular forces attacking occupying armies, going back to the time of Russian Czar Ivan the IV, better known as Ivan the Terrible (1533-1584). The effectiveness of the guerrilla operations will be determined by the support from the population. With massive popular support it can be effective; without it, any insurgency will quickly die from a lack of logistical support.
Do not judge popular support for a unconventional operation today; the test will be in months even years after the occupation is established. Do the people of Ukraine have the will to resist and suffer in the long run, or will they value creature comforts over resistance? Time will tell.
We are seeing talk of a peace treaty; Ukraine stands no chance of winning or holding out for any length of time. Stories of the 13 Ukrainian border guards telling two Russian naval vessels demanding their surrender to “go f*** yourselves” and then dying in place are nice and make a good story, but do not stop or even slow the massive Russian assault. Lacking resupply or any hope of other assistance, the Ukraine military is becoming less effective with every hour that passes.
Unless the Russian people demand the war to stop, it will not, and the Russians will have a glorious victory. Stories of the people being armed are good, but they will not stop the Russian advance.
My opinion.
Mr. Traxler, I wonder if we may be seeing a measured NATO response strategy similar to what Churchill and FDR employed at the beginning of WWII, with support from Edward R. Murrow’s “This Is London” rooftop broadcasts during the Luftwaffe bombing?
You may recall that during the 1930s, Hitler and Nazi Germany actually had many admirers, supporters and influential business partners here in our country. It was a similar situation to the fawning political, media and business relationships that Putin and his fellow Russian oligarchs cultivated throughout the U.S.A. in recent years.
The people of England suffered Hitler’s attacks for many months, but their courageous defiance eventually inspired public opinion in the U.S.A. and in other countries to form an alliance to take action against the NAZI regime. The suffering and determined resistance of the Ukrainian people seems to be quickly attracting similar international attention, sympathy, and calls for action against Putin.
If financial sanctions gradually hurt Russian political donations and business interests here in the U.S.A., then Putin’s political and business parters in our country could turn against him. As other countries join the U.S.A. in sanctions to squeeze Putin’s economy, he may encounter increasing resistance and anti-war sentiment among his oligarch friends, and the people of Russia. China’s support could erode as well, if they see their own international business interests harmed by Putin’s war. In Putin’s mind, conquering Ukraine may be a first step to restoring his beloved USSR. But for his partners, there’s a chance that only money matters. So this could be the beginning of the end for Putin.
You may be correct that time is on Putin’s side. But it could also work against him. We can only hope that this war can be ended soon and the issues resolved without nuclear weapons.
Mr. Bergeron,
Sir,
Thank you for the comment.
President Putin is not dumb enough to use even tactical nukes, in Ukraine or over Ukraine.
Sanctions take time to damage a nation, President Putin can take Ukraine and sit back to weather the economic storm that comes months from now. The question is will Germany, France and the rest of NATO who will also suffer without Russian oil, gas, minerals and metals keep the sanctions in place for the long run? President Putin is betting they will not.
Thanks again.
It’s too bad one man’s greed can cause this much suffering. History does repeat itself. Hitler got his due in the end of World War II and hopefully Putin will as well.
A lot of critics say President Biden could have stopped this. I would like to know how. No matter who was president, no one was going to stop Putin. All we can do is clip his wings like we are doing now and not start WW111.
The Russian people need to stand up against war.
Mr. Longstreet,
Sir,
Thank you for the comment. President Putin has a 70% plus approval rate in Russia, 60% approval is considered very good. The approval rate may change, but today Putin is in good shape within Mother Russia.
NATO could have sent anti-aircraft and anti-armor weapons months ago when it was believed Russia was going to invade. Germany, France and all of NATO sent a message when they did not help Ukraine and some met with the Russians to talk trade during the first months of this crisis. Germany even banned weapons being sent to Ukraine through its nation told the Russia their invasion would not be challenged.
The bottom line was even in our nation “do not poke the bear,” no sanctions or trade restrictions were conditionally imposed, saying if the Russians invade, NATO will act together to destroy the Russian economy. All signals were green for Ivan to gear up and attack.
Thanks for the comment.