by Robert M. Traxler
Ukraine’s attack on Russian airfields, Operation Spider’s Web, was a master strike and a brilliant operation. The Russian Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 aircraft destroyed were used to deliver cruise missile attacks on the Ukraine. They are also nuclear capable strategic bombers that cannot be easily replaced.
The Ukraine used launch points close to the Russian Air bases, close enough to deny the air defense systems time to detect and launch anti-drone weapons. Successfully infiltrating dozens of drones by ground deep into Russia will force Russia to expand security and pull back defensive systems from the front lines deeper into Mother Russia, a good thing for the Ukrainians.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian state media is framing the Ukrainian attack as a legitimate reason to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. The Russians have used numerous threats to go nuclear in the slow and costly war on the Ukraine, to force NATO nations to pull back their support for Ukraine; time will tell if it works again this time.
Most reasonable and prudent people would not use even low yield nuclear weapons, as the world’s nations, even the main supporters of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, would strongly reject the use and balk at further support for President Putin.
Ukraine’s recent drone strikes on Russian airfields, particularly Operation Spider’s Web, represent a significant shift in the conflict’s dynamics. These operations have disrupted Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, including Tu-95, Tu-22M, and A-50 aircraft, which are integral to its nuclear deterrence and long-range strike capabilities. The destruction or damage to approximately 30% of Russia’s strategic bombers has compromised its ability to project power and conduct long-range missile strikes.
Given that production of these bombers ceased after 1991, their loss is irreplaceable in the short term. The loss will force the Russians to expend limited assets replacing a portion of its nuclear triad.
These Ukrainian strikes have not only disrupted Russian military operations but also serve as a psychological blow, demonstrating Ukraine’s capability to strike deep within Russian territory. This may force Russia to reconsider its military posture and defensive strategies, at least in the short run.
The need to relocate aircraft to bases further from the front lines has introduced logistical challenges for Russia, including longer flight times and increased fuel and maintenance demands. This redeployment stretches Russian resources and reduces the efficiency of their air operations. The Ukraine forced major changes in their enemy’s strategy at a very limited cost in dollars and Ukrainian lives. We may never know the who and how of the planning phase, but it will be a must read for all career military folks.
Ukraine’s use of low-cost drones, some launched from wooden cabins apparently on trucks, showcases a shift towards asymmetric warfare. This approach challenges traditional military strategies and highlights the increasing obsolescence of manned air defense systems in the face of inexpensive, easily deployable drones. Unfortunately for Ukraine, this type of operation will be difficult if not impossible to repeat.
The success of these operations has garnered international attention, with countries like Australia expressing interest in Ukraine’s advanced asymmetric warfare capabilities. This could lead to increased global support and collaboration in defense technologies. The success of operation Spider’s Web was also a major boost for the morale of the Ukrainian people.
In the long term, Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russian territory have proven to be a strategically effective operation. They have degraded critical Russian military assets, introduced operational challenges, and shifted the dynamics of modern warfare.
While the full extent of their impact remains to be seen, these actions have undoubtedly altered the course of the conflict and have broader implications for future military strategies. The days of a mile exclusionary zone around vital facilities even in “safe zones” just changed. All vital facilities will require overhead cover, strong bunkers, and anti-drone capability. My opinion.
