The Iranians will get nuclear weapon
s if they hold to the agreements worked out with Secretary of State John Kerry and leaders from other nations; it will take them a bit longer but it is inevitable.
President Bill Clinton paying North Korea two billion dollars not to develop a nuclear arsenal did slow the process for two years, but did not stop it. The da
nger of the Iranians getting the bomb is the perceived need for military, economic, religious and political balance in that part of the world.
An Iran with nuclear weapons will give birth to a nuclear Saudi Arabia who will just purchase a bomb or ten. The Saudis get the bomb and nations to the west of them across the Red Sea will feel the need for balance or protection, as will Iraq and Syria, and the race is fully on.
The world is becoming a very dangerous place, and it will get worse. Ten nations have nuclear weapons and who knows how many are developing them. The ten who currently have the bomb are for the most part stable and rational governments today; tomorrow who knows? We do have North Korea with 8 to 10 bombs and developing more; they have not sold a weapon as yet; but they have exported the technology for profit, and the next step is selling a bomb.
Pakistan, with 200 plus weapons is a wild card, and they also have exported nuclear technology around the world. Ahmad Kahn, the developer of the Pakistani bomb, is a national hero in the entire Islamic world and has been a hired gun for any nation with the funds to pay him. The Pakistani bomb was produced with equipment from the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany, France, Belgium and England. The practice of purchasing component parts and equipment from many places allows a program to fly below the radar of United Nations and world scrutiny.
The Iranians have the equipment necessary to produce a bomb, they have the knowledge necessary to produce a bomb, and they have the will to produce the bomb. The pending agreement between nations led by the United States will do exactly what the agreement did with the North Koreans: slow the inevitable outcome perhaps for as much as two to three years. President Obama will be able to say Iran did not get the bomb on my watch; sadly we could have made a much better deal.
Is there a magical formula to stop nuclear proliferation? No there is not, only force of arms could stop the race for nuclear weapons and no country has the will to do it. Only the United States and The Russian Federation have the military capability to destroy other nation’s nuclear programs and both lack the national will to intervene at that level. Even if we or the Russians did destroy newly minted nuclear programs, we would only postpone the inevitable. The cold cruel fact is that the number of nuclear weapons will grow at an accelerated rate, as will the number of nations who join the nuclear club.
Twenty years from today the ten nations with the bomb will be the fifty nations with the bomb. As new nations become nuclear capable, the odds that one will use a device grow. The main objective of any government is to retain power; it does not matter what type of government it is, holding on to power and privilege is the paramount concern.
The first use of nuclear weapons in this century will be by a nation whose leadership is threatened, and the leaders will use it to retain power. As time passes and the number of nuclear weapons increases, the use of nuclear weapons offensively to expand power and influence will increase, and that is a terrifying fact.
The Russian Federation and the United States have over a thousand nuclear weapons each to “protect the Democratic and Socialist world.” Pakistan will say they need 200 nuclear weapons to protect the Islamic world, India will say they need 100 bombs to counter the Pakistanis’ and Israel needs 80 to counter the Islamic 200. Every nuclear nation cites a need to balance power; make no mistake: as the number of nuclear weapons grows it will be all about expanding political, economic and religious power, not merely defending it.
The inevitable offensive use of nuclear weapons will be the end of life as we know it; tragically it is just a matter of time. Let’s all pray it is a very long time.
