Democracy Tree: Why pollsters were dead wrong on Michigan

Source: AP, via Washington Post

by Amy Kerr Hardin

Political pollsters, pundits, and prognosticators, including the exalted wizards at Five-Thirty-Eight, truly screwed the pooch by calling the Michigan Democratic primary for Hillary.

Those same pundits, now sporting an egg facial, have posited a number of possible factors for their error with wild suppositions — including a large number of cross-over voters, a late surge due to Bernie’s ground game, voter debate reactions…on-and-on

None of these theories are the likely cause of the staggering difference between the numerous polling results, with Hillary enjoying on-average a 20-point lead, versus the actual voter outcome. Especially in light of the fact that the Republican polling numbers were pretty much spot-on.

What gives?

The short answer is: angry white men and their landlines. The longer answer though, is a bit more nuanced.

First, new FCC rules which took effect nearly a year ago, placed limits on auto-dialing of cell phone numbers and the use of fully automated surveys on numbers listed as cells without express prior consent, thereby reducing the efficacy of telephone surveys and polls.

Below is the landline-skewed polling meta-data that the media and pundits used to come by their flawed Democratic, and their accurate GOP predictions:

Millennials don’t typically have landlines, and they are one of the key demographics that came-out in droves to vote for Sanders. Young adults and non-whites are increasingly likely to shun tethered phones altogether:

While the angry old white guys of Michigan hit the pause button on Duck Dynasty to dutifully answer their landline surveys — pressing 1 for Trump, 2 for Rubio, and 3 for Kasich, (bing! bing! bing!), a swath of Democrats remained unmolested by pollsters — leaving Democratic party leadership to settle-in, believing they had it in the bag with an easy slide home for Hillary.

Yet, it wasn’t just the under-thirty crowd that helped Sanders sweep nine out of ten of Michigan’s counties. Also under the pollsters’ radars were outstate Democrats, even those with landlines — whose phones rang mostly from get-out-the-vote calls — no broad-spectrum, non-partisan polling up north, only the occasional conservative PAC push-poll to punctuate the desolate howls of coyotes and whistling wind.

Democrats in west and northwest Michigan, along with a hardy crew of Yoopers — groups traditionally marginalized in state politics — toothless hillbillies that we are, ruled the day in the primaries. This is no small thing. At long last, outstate voters had a seat at the grownups’ table. The shifting power of political demographics may have the potential to move the needle on important public policy issues — not the least of which would be equity in school funding.

Michigan is certainly experiencing a time of change — let’s hope it’s for the better, because it can’t get much worse.