Steven Johnson will be a vulnerable incumbent in 2018

ACHTUNG: This is not a “fair and balanced” story. It is an editorial by the editor.

Wise observers of our corrupt and rigged election system in West Michigan have posited that Republican incumbents are almost invincible at the polls every two and four years.

There have been rare exceptions, but the August primary one year from now may be one of them.

I hereby submit that 72^nd District State Rep. Steven Johnson of Wayland may be the most vulnerable incumbent state legislator when the 2018 August primary comes to town. Indeed, if Kent County Republicans in Kentwood and Gaines Township get organized and unified between now and then and back one candidate to oppose Johnson, he will be relegated to a single two-year term in Lansing.

My math says that one Republican challenger on the ballot besides Johnson will defeat him, but only if it’s just one candidate.

In this case, Johnson’s current greatest enemy is the horrible one-party system and the rigged games that are played to manipulate elections. Between these rules and gerrymandering, they serve to enable someone who doesn’t enjoy an electoral majority in the primary to win the eventual big prize because no Democratic challenger can win in the November general.

Look at the evidence from the August 2016 primary, in which Johnson scored a huge upset over four other GOP candidates.

The very low turnout of  just over 7,500 gave Johnson 2,257 votes, or 29.80% of the total cast. Kentwood restaurant owner Tony Noto polled 1,748 or 23.08%. Schoolteacher Ryan Gallogly had 1,555, or 20.53%; farmer Bill Hirsch 1,367, or 18.05%,, and Robert D. Coughlin 646, 8.53%

The Grand Rapids Press reported a dismal 11.4% voter turnout in Kentwood and a 16.6% voter turnout in Kent County altogether.

Kentwood, the third-largest city in Kent County and more than half the population of the 72^nd District, gave its highest support to Noto, but because the turnout was so low, Johnson was able to capture a plurality district-wide with fewer than 30% of the total primary vote. That means that 70%, more than two-thirds, of the electorate did not vote for Johnson, but he won.

Allegan County makes up just 21 percent of the population of the legislative district, but Johnson scored heavily with 42 percent support in Dorr, Leighton and Wayland townships and the City of Wayland, enough to carry him to victory.

It was no secret that the Christian Reformed Church and South Christian High School played major roles in the shocking victory for an unemployed 25-year-old living in his parents’ basement and with no experience in the political arena except for a brief stint on the staff of the 2014 campaign of now-disgraced former State Rep. Cindy Gamrat.

Furthermore, as wise observers have noted, no Democratic candidate for the 72^nd, 80^th nor 88^th District has picked up as many as 40% of the vote in the November general election. But Steve Shoemaker of Leighton Township was able to rake in 41%, mostly because even Kent County Republicans turned on Johnson. Shoemaker carried the City of Kentwood.

Now comes the news that Johnson was the only state legislator among 148, Republican and Democrat, who voted against approval of a $40 million federal grant to help Flint residents get clean water. He explained that he doesn’t believe in Washington D.C. lending a helping hand for local cities, it’s a local problem.

From where I sit, that’s a public relations disaster.

I would not be so foolish here to predict Johnson’s defeat at the polls one year hence, but you heard it here first — he is very easily the most vulnerable incumbent in Lansing, especially if Kent County GOP officials get their act together and put up just one opponent.