WHS grad, history teacher predicts election outcome

EDITOR’S NOTE: Michael Johnston is a 1972 graduate of Wayland High School, a retired history teacher at Kenowa Hills High School and former editor of a labor newspaper.

Folks, get your barf bags, and booze bottles. A nightmare is about to begin! I’ll be puking out my back windows coming day after election.

I’ve been holding back predicting this election because of its volatility and I no longer have my students from weathervane Grand Rapids to help me. I’m again predicting the national elections. I’m up two, no losses.

Now, having arrived in Florida yesterday, after traveling from Michigan for five days across pivotal Pennsylvania, Ohio to Florida, I’m ready to put my politically accurate reputation on the line. However, it makes me physically ill to predict this election, but first I have to back up my opinion with solid logic based on everything I’ve been watching, reading, listening, and seeing since this pivotal mess began.

1. The recent decision by the Republican FBI director to investigate Clinton/sex pervert Weiner’s text messaging is the October surprise. In Florida, the polls say Hillary has been losing since then. Early voting Republicans up by 20,000. Trump ads using his attractive and warm daughter softening his harsh image while attacking Hillary as a insider, “pay for play, corrupt,” etc. Good cop/bad cop strategy. Tons of Trump ads here and PA. Met several  oldsters here and in PA who said they “haven’t voted in years,” but are this year for Trump. “He’s different: “He’s not a politician. We need to shake things up. Hillary is a liar. Trump is not beholden to either Republicans or Democrats. Hillary’s voice sounds like a shrieking harpy. Trump is real, says it like it is, Hillary isn’t authentic.” The media is corrupt.” “Hillary is going to get us into war.”  Florida/Trump  Pennsylvania/Gore-Bush voting nightmare

2. Usually heavy turnout means pro-Democratic, like the Obama years. This year the election turnout will be above the average, but nothing close to the Obama years. Trump/enthusiasm/hate/fear generates more turnout than Hillary’s lukewarm support/anti-Trump fear and hatred.

3. Early on Hillary said she was counting on millennials and Hispanics. There is no current evidence there is going to be a groundswell. My prediction is their numbers slightly up. New immigrants I’ve talked too were too busy, or indifferent to vote. Though there has been a rise in Hispanics voting as of Nov. 4. Also, I’ve detected some very disturbing trends. Hispanic machismo culture is shaping their vote for strongman Trump vs “that” woman Clinton, and surprisingly those who are here, whether legal or illegal, are threatened by any new immigrants. Clinton/but too low to change election

4. Across the swing states, Trump signs easily outnumber Hillary’s, perhaps 20:1. Trump signs heavily in the suburbs and countryside. No Hillary signs except in the affluent, government/contractor workers in defense living in Northern Virginia. Hillary in cities. Trump in rural areas, and small towns. Suburbs split. Too close to call. Another side observation. Almost no bumper stickers or signs on cars. Several folks I talked agreed with me. People are afraid of having their cars keyed. Fear, plays to Trump strongman.

5. Did my first Air BnB with a millennial couple living in Falls Church, 28, husband Russian immigrant. Both techs working for a contractor for the Office of Homeland Security. “I’ve always been for Hillary, but recently I learned more and I really support her (as a feminist.) I didn’t vote for Bernie, to radical for me. I voted for Marco Rubio to try to stop Trump in the primaries. My father was a contractor for Lockheed/Martin, very misogynistic. He is voting for Trump. My mother and other sisters are voting for Hillary.” Millennials are not going to turnout in the numbers they did for Obama. Clinton/but too low to change election.

6. People of color are overwhelmingly solid, but there is going to be a pro-black male blip vote for Trump. Misogyny and strong man syndrome. Blacks are turning out in lower numbers. Clinton

7. Negative ads traditionally push down voting by Democratic leaning folks. In PA and FL, the Trump ads were constant and vicious. Negative ads have also been shown to be more effective. Hillary’s are warm and embracing aimed at women. Recently, Hillary has been hitting Trump, using Trump’s own words on women against him. Too close. Trump

8. History shows that women traditionally vote the way of their husbands. However, this year Hillary has been concentrating on the women’s vote. Polls show Trump is hurting with them. This is my greatest hope. Women will vote at record numbers for Hillary. Clinton/if women defy 96 years of tradition.

9. Referendum on President Obama, Obamacare and hope vs. change. Are Americans better off. Statistically yes, perception no. Trump represents shakeup, change. Hillary represents status quo, same old, same old. Trump

Now the big picture, historical patterns:

9. Historically when one party has been in office two terms, the other party wins. Trump
10. Hardcore right numbers at maximum 36%. Left 21% (with decline of organized labor) Trump
11. For the left ground game wins but in recent years with demise of organized labor, this has made big money more prominent. Hillary wins there, but Trump’s brilliant use of free media and a swell of grassroots support has nullified this. Trump has fewer on the ground but they are driven! Trump
12. Simple messages always trump complex. Trump, master at this. “Make America great again, crooked Hillary, bomb the shit out of them.” Trump
13. Fear and logic trumps reason and logic. 9/11 changed America into a fearful nation. Liberalism has been on decline since Reagan, and conservatism on steroids since 9/11. Trump
14. Misogyny trumps racism now. Blacks got the vote in 1866. Women, 1920. Trump
15. Pivotal elections bring out intense partisan searching for American direction 1860, 1884, 1912, 1932 . . .

The social conditions of the U.S. now is similar to the Weimar Republic of the late 1920s. Trump has already changed politics forever, not for the good, politicized the military, diminished the office of the presidency as a candidate, and sealed the belief that government is bad, and biz is good. With Trump’s election we will be an official corporatist state!

This makes me ill to see this, but the trends have been there for a long time. I blame Nixon for turning the South into a reactionary branch of the Republican Party with his racist Southern strategy. I blame Reagan for creating Reagan Democrats by using racism, anti-union, and anti-intellectualism for cementing this strategy, and George W. for invading Irag and creating ISIS keeping terrorism alive and well.

Michael Johnston, Kentwood